Soviet (and now Russian) military doctrine since World War II has relied heavily on deception, or “maskirovka”. Wikipedia defines maskirovka as “a military doctrine developed from the start of the twentieth century (that) covers a broad range of measures for military deception, from camouflage to denial and deception.” From the Battle of Stalingrad in 1942 to the takeover of Crimea in 2014, the Russian military has used maskirovka to great effect. The buildup to the invasion of Ukraine was a further attempt at maskirovka: The forces building in Russia and Belarus around the Ukraine border were just “military readiness exercises”, and Putin was denying that an invasion was being planned right up to the point that it actually started. For the most part, the deception worked: With the exception of the US intelligence agencies, who broadcasted Russian intentions to anybody who would listen, Europe and the rest of the world (even Ukrainians) seemed shocked by the invasion.
However, maskirovka has also been used against us, here at home. The entire Trump phenomenon is clearly a masterpiece of the strategy. Let’s be clear: Putin either had something on Trump, or used the power of Russian mob money propping up Trump Tower and other properties, or some combination of the two, to get a puppet president who, had he been given a second term, would have removed the U.S. from NATO and possibly destroyed U.S. democracy. We escaped this by the skin of our teeth, and we are still not out of the woods. Russia identified a weakness in the GOP, their own maskirovka that has been ongoing since the time of Nixon: The dog-whistle appeal to white fears that has been used by many in the GOP to get elected and stay in office. With Trump, Putin found a useful idiot who didn’t mind saying out loud what many GOP voters wanted to hear. With the help of Russian hackers and social media bots, a U.S. President was installed who was in thrall to an unfriendly foreign government. When Trump claimed that Putin was a “genius”, that is the voice of somebody with first-hand knowledge.
Still, if any silver lining can be found in the ongoing tragedy in Ukraine, it is that once the mask is torn, it cannot be remade. The apologists for Putin, people such as Trump, Pompeo and Carlson, can no longer pretend that Putin is anything other than what he is. Instead, they have resorted to an almost manic attempt to distract voters from the reality around them. A pretty example is that of J.D. Vance, the author of “Hillbilly Elegy” who is running for the U.S. Senate in Ohio. Before the invasion, he was quoted as saying he “doesn’t care about what happens to Ukraine”. Apparently he was unaware that a very large Ukrainian-American community lives in Ohio, so the backpedaling has been fierce. It is unlikely that this will save his candidacy, since his original quote will no doubt feature heavily in opposition ads running in the Cleveland area.
It is not out of line to say that Trump envied Putin, and his apparently total control of Russia, especially his muzzling of the press and killing of political enemies. Does anyone think that Trump would not do the same, if given a chance? Certainly, the Trump mob of January 6th had this in mind, and we are finding out now that he and his allies did not try to stop it, and indeed, appeared to encourage it. As long as Trump is in any position of power in the GOP, the American experiment in democracy is in grave danger.
But there is reason for hope. The cruelty of Putin’s attack on Ukraine is matched only by the incompetence that has been demonstrated at all levels of the Russian government. Putin’s reign, while absolute, is brittle, and we are beginning to see crumbling around the edges. Oligarchs and generals are dying under mysterious circumstances, oil refineries, chemical plants and military research institutes are burning, and there are rumors of mass arrests of underlings who may not be sufficiently loyal. I would not be surprised to see uprisings in other places that have felt the Russian boot in recent years.
This story is not over, and I wish I could predict how it will end. But at least one chapter is written: Putin fooled us once, and shame on him. Fool us twice, though, and we will deserve whatever happens.